New Delhi: Fitch Ratings has placed both restricted groups (RG) of Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) at ‘BBB-’ with a Stable Outlook in a peer credit analysis of Asia-Pacific renewable energy issuers published on Monday, while making any future upgrade of the second restricted group, AGEL RG2, conditional in part on the US investigation involving the group’s promoters producing no material adverse outcome.
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The report assesses AGEL RG2’s standalone credit profile as already stronger than its rating. “AGEL RG2’s financial profile is stronger than that commensurate with a ‘BBB-’ rating for the asset portfolio, reflecting considerable rating headroom at the current level,” Fitch stated. “The credit assessment is constrained by India’s (BBB-/Stable) ‘BBB-’ Country Ceiling.”
Fitch carries AGEL RG1 at the same level. “AGEL RG1’s ratings benefit from long-term fixed-price PPAs, solar-only assets, a fully amortising debt structure, high contributions from capacity contracted with sovereign-owned entities like NTPC Limited (BBB-/Stable) and Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), at 57 percent, and a strong financial profile with a rating-case DSCR of 1.40x, which is commensurate with its current rating of ‘BBB-’,” the agency said.
The conditions Fitch lists for a potential upgrade of AGEL RG2 includes “[r]isks of any material negative implications from the US investigation do not materialise, while funding access remains intact,” and that “India’s Country Ceiling is revised upwards to ‘BBB’, with no deterioration in the financial profile.”
The construction places the US investigation among the unresolved variables on AGEL RG2’s upside.
On the role of the sovereign cap, Fitch said: “The Country Ceiling caps the final rating to reflect transfer and convertibility risk in the transaction in cases like AGEL RG2, when the portfolio’s asset mix and financial profile reflect a better credit assessment than the applicable Country Ceiling.”
The investigation Fitch references stems from a November 2024 indictment by the US Department of Justice (DoJ), which alleged a scheme to pay about USD 265 million in bribes to Indian officials to secure solar power supply agreements routed through SECI and state distribution companies. A separate civil case was filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The DoJ moved on May 18 to drop the criminal charges. On June 26-27, days before the Fitch report, a US district court in New York declined to dismiss the indictment immediately, with Judge Nicholas Garaufis calling the government’s explanation “terse, bland, and conclusory” and directing the DoJ to provide fuller reasons by July 13. The SEC civil matter was earlier resolved through a settlement, made without any admission or denial of the allegations. Adani Group has consistently denied wrongdoing.
Adani Green Energy has stated in repeated exchange filings that it is not a party to the US proceedings and that no charges have been brought against the company itself. India’s Competition Commission separately closed a complaint relating to the same SECI solar tender in April 2026, finding no prima facie case.
Both restricted groups are pure solar. AGEL RG1 comprises 930 megawatt (MW) of capacity and AGEL RG2 about 570 MW, on Fitch’s figures. AGEL RG1 carries a rating-case debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.40x measured over the bond period; AGEL RG2’s 1.42x is measured over the project life, so the two figures sit on slightly different bases.
Fitch puts sovereign-contracted capacity at 57 percent for AGEL RG1 and higher for RG2. “AGEL RG2 has higher contributions from capacity contracted with a sovereign-owned entity, at 61 percent, than AGEL RG1,” the agency noted. State distribution companies account for the balance — 43 percent of AGEL RG1 and 39 percent of AGEL RG2.
For AGEL RG1, Fitch says positive rating action “appears unlikely, given our expectation of limited improvement in the financial profile.” It flags a downgrade if “[a]verage annual DSCR during the notes’ tenor falls to below 1.35x persistently,” or on a “[l]owering of India’s ‘BBB-’ Country Ceiling to ‘BB+’.”
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For AGEL RG2, the agency cites a downgrade trigger if “[a]verage annual DSCR during the notes’ tenor drops to below 1.3x for a prolonged period,” or on a “[l]owering of India’s Country Ceiling to ‘BB+’.”
Fitch’s India sovereign rating stood at ‘BBB-’ with a Stable Outlook at the time of the report, keeping the Country Ceiling at ‘BBB-’. S&P Global Ratings had raised India to ‘BBB’ in August 2025, leaving the two agencies a notch apart — the gap that AGEL RG2’s upgrade scenario would require Fitch to close.