New Delhi: Rating agency ICRA on Thursday raised its forecast for India’s electricity demand growth in FY2027 to around 8.5 percent, up from 6.5 percent earlier. The revision followed a 23.4 percent year-on-year rise in demand during the first 10 days of October, Ankit Jain, Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings at ICRA, said in a statement. He cited data from Grid Controller of India Limited (GCIL) for the October figure.
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According to ICRA, the October numbers reflected the continuation of strong demand through the current financial year. Jain linked the growth to the weather and to industry. “Supported by higher-than-normal temperatures, sustained cooling requirements and healthy industrial activity, electricity demand remained resilient despite the end of the peak summer season,” he said.
Electricity demand grew 10.2 percent year-on-year in the first six months of FY2027, from April to September, Jain said. ICRA built its revised full-year estimate on that trend, though the weather remains the main uncertainty. “Weather-related uncertainties remain a key risk,” he added.
This October’s figures compare with a month of falling demand last year. In its October 2025 update, ICRA reported that electricity demand declined 5 percent year-on-year during the first 20 days of October 2025.
The rise in demand has come as coal stocks have thinned. Coal stock stood at around 6 days as of October 10, lower than the levels seen in the last three years, according to ICRA. That was also below the normative requirement of around 19 to 20 days, “with lower inventory levels providing a relatively thinner buffer against demand and supply disruptions,” Jain said. A year earlier, ICRA had put the coal stock at power plants at 14.7 days as on October 17, 2025.
Domestic production has weakened over the same period. Coal output fell 3.2 percent year-on-year in April-August, largely due to lower output from Coal India Limited, according to ICRA. Coal supply to the power sector, however, rose 4 percent during those five months.
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Jain said a further fall in stocks could leave the sector short if demand spikes. “A further decline in stock levels, particularly if accompanied by weaker coal production or supply constraints, may limit the sector’s ability to meet any sharp surge in peak demand,” he said. “Sustained recovery in coal production and supply remains important to maintain adequate buffer stock levels.”