New Delhi: India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said on Wednesday that renewable energy capacity is being built faster than the grid can absorb it. The agency described the divergence between commissioning and transmission readiness as a key credit risk for the sector.
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Ind-Ra put the planned renewable pipeline to FY32 at 196 GW. Of that, around 112 GW is still tracking transmission schedules. The remaining 84 GW is waiting on General Network Access (GNA) to be operationalised. Delays on that capacity range from a few months to more than a year. The agency called it a persistent transmission execution gap.
The shortfall is concentrated rather than spread evenly. Key renewable hubs account for close to 42 GW of the delayed capacity, or half the total.
"Risks are increasingly concentrated in a handful of large RE hubs, where evacuation infrastructure continues to lag generation capacity additions, with an average delay exceeding six months. Key RE hubs contribute significantly to the 84 GW capacity associated with GNA delays, accounting for nearly 42 GW of the total.
"This indicates execution slippages at a limited number of substations could materially influence RE integration across India", says Peeush Middha, Associate Director, Infrastructure, Ind-Ra.
For projects due on stream by the second half of FY27, Ind-Ra expects generation to outrun transmission by 32 GW. That figure could rise to 40 GW. The trigger would be a further three-month slippage in interstate transmission system (ISTS) commissioning beyond current timelines.
A project that starts generating before its evacuation is ready has to fall back on temporary general network access (T-GNA). Operating under T-GNA exposes it to curtailment when the grid is constrained.
Renewable projects rated by Ind-Ra have not seen material rating pressure from transmission delays to date. The agency credited repayment moratoriums, liquidity buffers and sponsor support mechanisms for that cushion.
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The cushion is not open-ended. Ind-Ra warned that drawn-out transmission bottlenecks could erode capital structures. Borrowers could end up leaning on sponsors on a sustained basis.