New Delhi: Coal stock at India's thermal power plants had thinned to nine days of cover in August, the lowest in 34 months. Inventories fell about 42 percent to 29 Million Tonnes (MT) in August from 50 MT a year earlier, Crisil Intelligence said in a statement issued on Friday. Cover nearly halved over the same period, from 17 days, as coal-based generation rose about 13 percent on a spike in power demand.
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August did not break a trend so much as accelerate one. Cover stood at 17 days in April, slipped to 16 in May, 14 in June and 12 in July, and then dropped three days in a single month to reach nine. That three-day fall is the sharpest month-on-month decline anywhere in Crisil's series, which opens in November 2023 at 10 days. Nine days sits below that opening reading, and below every month in between.
The depletion was concentrated at plants drawing on domestic coal, where replenishment has to keep pace with elevated burn. Fifty-one of the country's 190 thermal plants were operating with critically low stocks in August, against 20 a year earlier. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) treats a plant's stock as critical when it falls 25 percent below the normative level.
The stress sat in a handful of states rather than across the fleet. In Rajasthan, 72 percent of coal-based generation capacity was running critically low, followed by Madhya Pradesh at 69 percent and Andhra Pradesh at 60 percent. Jharkhand and Bihar came next, at 48 percent and 45 percent. Between 20 percent and 31 percent of capacity in other major states was similarly placed, while Odisha at 10 percent and West Bengal at 6 percent held up better.
Part of the draw is simply how much coal was burned. Thermal plants consumed about 8 percent more coal on-year between April and August, at 395 MT, as power demand rose 9.5 percent. An abnormally hot summer and a weak southwest monsoon drove that demand, with cumulative rainfall between June and August running 13 percent below the long-period average. Overall generation rose about 10.5 percent across the five months. Renewable generation grew faster, at 20.7 percent, but its intermittency left coal-fired plants carrying round-the-clock load.
Stocks at the producers' end have been drawn down through the same months, from a far higher base.
Sehul Bhatt, Director, Crisil Intelligence, said, "India's pithead inventories moderated sharply from a peak of 157 MT in early March 2026 to ~76 MT in August 2026, reflecting the normalisation of elevated stocks. Current levels remain broadly aligned with the average of 76.1 MT recorded across August 2024 and 2025. This indicates that despite the significant drawdown, coal availability is adequate and there is no material supply-side stress."
The constraint has been movement rather than output. Prolonged rain across the eastern coal belt disrupted mining and held up evacuation. Rake loading rose only about 5 percent between April and August and coal receipts 3 percent, against the 8 percent rise in consumption. The incremental coal reaching plants was therefore too thin to rebuild inventories. Coal India Limited (CIL) has since allowed plants holding fuel supply agreements to lift additional coal by road alongside rail, from September 7.
Surbhi Kaushal, Associate Director, Crisil Intelligence, said, "In the second half of this fiscal, electricity demand, coal-based generation, coal consumption and coal dispatches to power plants are all expected to grow in a narrow range of 6-7 percent on-year. Power demand is estimated at 860-870 billion units, while coal-based generation is likely to retain its dominant 65-70 percent share of India's electricity mix. Given adequate inventories at miners and improving evacuation logistics, higher dispatch requirements should be met comfortably. As such, the recent decline in power plant stocks appears to be a temporary logistical issue rather than a sign of any structural supply constraint."
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The downside risks Crisil identifies run to weather and to rail. Adverse conditions could disrupt mining and evacuation again, and the addition of rail availability and rake loading capacity could slip. Rebuilding plant stocks towards the historical cover of 16 to 18 days will need dispatches to rise and to stay up.
