Quitol (Goa): India is projected to be the largest contributor to global oil demand growth till 2050, according to the World Oil Outlook 2025 presented by Abderrezak Benyoucef, Head of Energy Studies at the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), at India Energy Week (IEW) 2026 in Goa on Wednesday.
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Presenting OPEC’s flagship long-term outlook on the second day of the event, Benyoucef said India alone is expected to add 8.2 million barrels per day of oil demand by 2050, with growth “driven primarily by transportation, petrochemicals and industrial activity.”
At the global level, oil demand is projected to continue rising over the medium and long term, reaching nearly 123 million barrels per day by 2050, with demand growth concentrated in non-OECD regions.
“We don’t see any sign of global oil demand peaking any time soon,” Benyoucef said, adding that oil will “retain a large share in the energy mix throughout the forecasted period,” accounting for 30 percent of global primary energy demand by 2050. The combined share of oil and gas is expected to remain above 50 percent between 2024 and 2050.
The outlook projects India as the “largest and most stable contributor” to global primary energy demand growth. India’s total primary energy demand is expected to almost double from around 22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024 to about 43.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2050.
“We expect India’s energy demand to increase… moving from the current level of around 22 (million barrels of oil equivalent per day),” Benyoucef said, adding that average energy demand growth is projected at around 2.7 percent through 2050.
Globally, primary energy demand is projected to rise by 23 percent over the same period, with non-OECD countries accounting for nearly 72 percent of total demand by 2050.
Benyoucef said demographic and economic trends would consolidate India’s central role in future energy demand. India’s urbanisation rate is projected to rise from 37 percent to 53 percent by 2050, while the country’s passenger car fleet is expected to expand from around 50 million in 2024 to more than 240 million by 2050.
“Road transportation is projected to witness the most significant growth,” he said, with road fuel demand increasing by 6 million barrels per day, driven by passenger vehicles and a fourfold rise in commercial vehicles. Diesel is expected to be the largest source of incremental demand, followed by gasoline.
India’s petrochemical sector, which uses naphtha as a primary feedstock, is also expected to see demand rise from 0.4 million barrels per day in 2024 to 1.1 million barrels per day by 2050.
On the macroeconomic front, Benyoucef said India is expected to be the world’s “largest and fastest-growing major economy”, with average annual GDP growth of around 5.8 per cent between 2024 and 2050. India’s share of global GDP is projected to rise from about 8 percent to 17 percent over the period.
Global population is expected to increase by around 1.5 billion by 2050, with almost all growth occurring in non-OECD countries, reinforcing long-term energy demand growth, he said.
The outlook underscored the need for sustained investment to meet rising demand and offset natural decline rates. Globally, cumulative oil-related investment requirements are estimated at USD 18.2 trillion between 2025 and 2050, including nearly USD 15 trillion in upstream investment.
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“The world needs realistic energy pathways with a balanced approach to lowering emissions while ensuring energy security and energy access,” Benyoucef said, stressing that cooperation would be “crucial for a sustainable and common energy future.”
