New Delhi: The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has ruled out any peak in global oil demand over the next 25 years and forecast a 19 million barrel per day (mb/d) rise in demand by 2050, reaching nearly 123 mb/d. In its World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2025, launched on July 10 at the OPEC International Seminar in Vienna, the group called for USD 18.2 trillion in cumulative oil industry investments and dismissed rapid phaseout narratives as “a fantasy.”
“The WOO 2025 does not view any energy in isolation or dismiss anything,” said Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary General of OPEC, in the foreword to the report. “It takes a holistic view, encompassing the realities we see before us,” he added, stressing that the energy transition must reflect “a realistic understanding of the needs of all peoples.”
Despite rising shares of renewables, OPEC projects that oil and gas will continue to provide over half of the world’s energy needs through 2050. Oil alone is expected to retain the largest share in the energy mix at just under 30 percent, while the share of other renewables, including solar and wind, will rise to 13.5 percent.
“Oil underpins the global economy and is central to our daily lives,” Ghais said. “Out to 2050, we see oil demand continuing to expand and reaching 123 mb/d. There is no peak oil demand on the horizon.”
The report attributes this increase to growing populations, economic expansion, rising urbanisation, and demand from new energy-intensive sectors like artificial intelligence. Almost all the growth is projected to come from developing countries, with India alone adding 8.2 mb/d to global oil demand by 2050.
In a strongly worded message, OPEC challenged the narrative of rapid fossil fuel phaseouts, calling it “unworkable, and a fantasy.” “Many initial net-zero policies promoted unrealistic timelines or had little regard for energy security, affordability or feasibility – this mindset is shifting,” Ghais wrote in the foreword.
The report argues that energy transitions historically have added to, rather than replaced, existing fuels, and points out that the combined share of oil, coal and gas remains at about 80 percent – nearly unchanged from the 1960s.
OPEC’s long-term projections stand in stark contrast to those of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA projects global oil demand growth of just 0.72 mb/d in 2025, and expects demand to peak before the end of this decade. Under its baseline scenario, IEA sees demand stabilising at around 105–106 mb/d before entering a gradual decline.
By comparison, OPEC forecasts oil demand growing well beyond 2030, reaching 113.3 mb/d by 2030 and 122.9 mb/d by 2050. The difference between the two agencies’ forecasts for 2025 alone is nearly 0.6 mb/d and widens to over 7 mb/d by 2030.
While OPEC emphasises the need for continued oil investment, the IEA outlook reflects a structurally slowing growth pattern driven by energy efficiency, policy shifts and rising electric vehicle adoption.
OPEC estimates that meeting future oil demand will require cumulative investments of USD 18.2 trillion between 2025 and 2050, of which USD 14.9 trillion is needed in upstream oil exploration and production. “It is vital that these investments are made for consumers and producers everywhere, as well as for the effective functioning of the global economy at large,” Ghais said.
The report warns that any shortfall in investment could impact market stability and energy security.
Road transport, aviation, and petrochemicals are expected to lead future demand growth. The global vehicle fleet is projected to grow from 1.7 billion to 2.9 billion vehicles by 2050, with electric vehicles gaining share but internal combustion engine vehicles still accounting for about 72 percent of the fleet.
Demand for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks such as LPG, ethane, and naphtha will grow steadily, OPEC said.
Global interregional oil trade is set to rise nearly 25 percent by 2050. Middle Eastern crude exports to the Asia-Pacific are projected to grow from 15.2 mb/d in 2024 to 23.5 mb/d in 2050, accounting for half of global oil trade flows by then, said the report.
Ghais called for “major investments in all energies and technologies,” and a “prudent approach” to the energy future. “Collaboration is imperative, data transparency is vital and energy realities must be recognised and prioritised,” he said.
