New Delhi: Indian refiners bought less Russian crude oil in September than in any month since April, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler. They made up the shortfall with more barrels from Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The change came as refiners spread their purchases across more suppliers amid geopolitical uncertainty.
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Kpler estimates that Russian shipments averaged 1.74 million barrels per day (bpd) in September. That was down from 2.02 million bpd in August, which had itself fallen from 2.65 million bpd in July. The last time India took less Russian crude was in April, when imports averaged 1.58 million bpd.
Two Middle Eastern suppliers more than made up for the drop. According to Kpler, Iraqi shipments to India rose to about 575,000 bpd in September from 163,000 bpd in August. Supplies from Saudi Arabia climbed to 566,000 bpd from 347,000 bpd. The UAE moved the other way, with imports easing to 480,000 bpd from 546,000 bpd.
Taken together, crude from the Middle East came to an estimated 3 million bpd in September. That is broadly back to pre-war levels, with larger flows from Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Refiners have been able to rebuild purchases from the region as movements through the Strait of Hormuz improve. Ship-to-ship transfers and other logistical arrangements have also helped. Beyond the Gulf, supplies from Africa and Venezuela have added to the diversification.
The drop in Russian barrels came even as India bought more crude overall. Total imports averaged about 5.3 million bpd in September. That is roughly 600,000 bpd more than in August and 700,000 bpd more than a year earlier.
Sumit Ritolia, Senior Manager (Modelling) at Kpler, put the increase down to stronger domestic fuel demand and high refinery utilisation. Export-oriented refineries are also running at elevated rates, he said. They are taking advantage of strong international fuel margins and tight global supplies of refined products.
Ritolia said Washington's continued pressure on buyers of Russian oil had led Indian refiners to keep their sourcing options flexible. He added that the September decline does not mean India is abandoning Russian crude. Russian oil remains a major part of India's supply basket. Refiners still base their buying decisions mainly on price, availability and how well a grade suits a particular refinery, he said.
Refiners could turn more cautious if the US announces unilateral punitive measures against India over its Russian oil purchases, Ritolia said. In a period of such uncertainty, they could cut purchases while they assess enforcement, possible waivers and alternative supplies.
India's rise as a major buyer of Russian crude dates to 2022. After Moscow invaded Ukraine that year, Western sanctions and a price cap led Russia to redirect its supplies towards Asian markets.
Oil products have recently begun moving the other way, from India to Russia, in a limited reversal. According to Ritolia, Russia started importing them after Ukrainian attacks disrupted its refineries and cut its domestic production of high-octane gasoline. Russia has also relaxed its quality standards for domestic motor fuel and brought in more fuel by rail from neighbouring countries to bridge the shortfall.
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Seaborne supplies from India began in July. According to Kpler, they met about 4 percent of Russian domestic demand for the affected products in the third quarter of 2026. These cargoes remain a small outlet for India's petroleum product exports as a whole. Ritolia said they reflect a temporary adjustment caused by the refinery disruptions in Russia, not a wider change in the energy relationship between the two countries.