New Delhi: India’s average temperature rose by nearly 0.9 degrees Celsius in the last decade (2015–2024), with the number of warm days increasing across most of the country, according to a new peer-reviewed study. The researchers said the findings highlight the urgent need for adaptation strategies as extreme weather accelerates across regions.
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The study found that the hottest day of the year has warmed by 1.5–2 degrees Celsius in western and northeast India since the 1950s. The research, conducted by climate scientists Chirag Dhara (Krea University), Aditi Deshpande (Savitribai Phule Pune University), Roxy Mathew Koll (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology), Padmini Dalpadado (Institute of Marine Research, Norway) and Mandira Singh Shrestha (International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, Nepal), synthesises observational datasets and climate model projections to present what the authors describe as a stark picture of rapid climatic changes.
The paper states: “India's average temperature has risen by nearly 0.9 degrees Celsius in the last decade (2015-2024) compared to the early 20th century (1901-1930), with the hottest day of the year warming by 1.5-2 degrees Celsius in western and northeast India since the 1950s.”
According to the study, this warming has been associated with more frequent and intense heat waves, with the number of warm days increasing by 5–10 days per decade.
The researchers observed large regional variations in warming and its impacts. The Hindukush Himalayas recorded accelerated warming accompanied by rapid glacier melt. The Indo-Gangetic plains experienced intensified heat stress and a decline in June–September (JJAS) rainfall. Northwest India saw an increase in both warm days and warm nights, while western India recorded a rise in extreme rainfall along with a rise in warm days and nights.
Along the western coast, the study reported an increase in severe tropical cyclones and a rise in sea levels, noting that the Arabian Sea has witnessed accelerated warming. Northeast India showed a decline in JJAS rainfall and an increase in warm days and nights. The Sundarbans recorded rising sea levels combined with higher heat stress and more warm nights. Central India saw a rise in extreme rainfall, while southeast India recorded an increase in warm days, warm nights and also an increase in northeast rainfall.
A particularly alarming finding of the study is the projected rise in “compound extremes”, referring to the simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple climate hazards. The research highlights growing risks posed by concurrent heatwaves and droughts, noting that these compound events can overwhelm response systems and cause cascading impacts on agriculture, water supply and human health. The authors said that as global temperatures rise, such extremes are expected to become both more frequent and more intense across India.
The study found that the tropical Indian Ocean is warming at a rate of 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade, one of the fastest rates in the world. This trend is fueling a sharp rise in marine heatwaves, which are projected to occur for nearly 200 days per year by 2050, compared with around 20 days per year in recent decades.
The study warned of severe implications for coastal and marine ecosystems, stating: “This poses a grave threat to marine ecosystems, including coral reefs and fisheries, which are vital for the livelihoods of millions.”
The researchers reported that the Arabian Sea has become a hotspot for intense tropical cyclones, with the maximum intensity of pre-monsoon cyclones increasing by 40 percent in recent decades. Rising sea levels are amplifying the risks of coastal flooding and storm surges. The study also projects that historical one-in-a-hundred-year extreme sea-level events will become annual occurrences by the middle of the century.
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The findings underline the need for India to rapidly scale up adaptation and mitigation efforts. The authors called for region-specific adaptation strategies grounded in updated climate science. These include the development of climate-resilient infrastructure, multi-hazard early warning systems and climate-smart agricultural practices that can withstand extreme weather events. The report said such measures will be critical as the frequency and intensity of climate extremes continue to rise.